Preliminary assessment of atmospheric dispersion and radiological risk with implications for public health and economic impact

This study provides an evaluation of public health and economic impacts following a hypothetical nuclear accident. Using the Pasquill-Gifford (PG) atmospheric stability classification, simulations were conducted with HotSpot Health Physics to determine the total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) and associated excess relative risk (ERR) for radiation-induced leukemia. Risk estimates were obtained through the biological effects of ionizing radiation V and VII radioepidemiological models, considering age- and sex-specific vulnerability across various exposure zones. The Geographic Information Systems (GISs), combined with demographic data, enabled stratified analysis. The results reveal differences in exposure and risk patterns that are influenced by environmental conditions, demography, and atmospheric stability. Furthermore, this study introduces a cost-assessment approach based on ERR-adjusted radiation dose distributions, offering a conservative perspective on the economic impact of radiological health effects. The work also emphasizes the significance of demographic sensitivity and conservative latency assumptions in fostering resilient medium-term public health strategies.