Assessing detection of New Zealand mudsnails at low densities in Arizona streams

The New Zealand mudsnail (NZMS) is a small-bodied gastropod that has successfully invaded waters across multiple continents. This species has the ability to reach extremely high densities in streams and exclude other aquatic macroinvertebrates which higher trophic levels rely on as a food source. While the effects of NZMS are well studied, early detection methods for this species are limited almost entirely to environmental DNA (eDNA) testing. While eDNA is a valuable tool for the early detection of this species, low density sampling protocols are also essential to verify positive eDNA detections and to determine precise distributions so that management may be implemented in these areas during an invasion. The goal of our study is to evaluate and compare the efficacy of various quadrat sampling protocols to detect NZMS at low densities, and to determine the densities below which detection may become uncertain using these protocols. We tested 10-, 20-, and 30-quadrat grids within 100 m stream reaches, using both random and strategic selection of quadrat sites, to assess each design’s performance in overall probability of detection. We found that a non-random strategic sampling design was significantly more effective at detection of NZMS than a random design. Additionally, we found that, across study streams with different snail densities, taking 14 quadrat Surber samples using non-random strategic site selection consistently led to capture probabilities over 99%, with one exception in the stream with the lowest densities. To account for heterogeneity in habitat and snail density, we recommend using 30 quadrats with non-random strategic site selection to maximize detection in systems with unknown presence. This study outlines a sampling protocol to verify the physical presence of NZMS that can be adapted into monitoring programs or to confirm presence of this species following a suspected introduction.