When Patronage Fails in Jordan: Vulnerabilities of Returnees in a Time of Crisis

Jordan is widely perceived as an island of stability within a turbulent Middle East, yet this perception conceals significant internal fragility. This paper examines the gradual erosion of the Hashemite monarchy’s long-standing patronage system, which historically distributed state resources—jobs, subsidies, and stipends—to loyal East Bank tribes in exchange for political allegiance and social cohesion. Drawing on recent economic data, policy analyses, and reports from international organizations, the study traces how external austerity programs, demographic pressures, and declining revenues have undermined this arrangement, producing disillusionment among traditional supporters and intensifying the exclusion of non-tribal groups such as Palestinian-Jordanians, refugees, and urban professionals. The analysis further explores how scapegoating of outsiders has emerged as a mechanism of control and how new coercive instruments, including expanded surveillance, protest restrictions, and the 2023 cybercrime law, reveal a shift from patronage to repression. By linking these domestic transformations to the experiences of failed asylum seekers and other returnees, the paper demonstrates that the weakening of tribal protection and the expansion of state control create new layers of vulnerability. The findings suggest that all Jordanians now face heightened structural risks, yet those outside the East Bank tribal framework encounter particularly acute exposure to exclusion, marginalization, and state pressure.