Assessing Climate Vulnerability in the Haor Wetland Region of Bangladesh: Policy and Governance Implications for Livelihood Resilience and Ecosystem-Based Adaptation

The Haor wetland region of Bangladesh faces growing climate vulnerability due to its unique geomorphology and hydrological complexity. This study assesses climate-induced hazards and their impacts on agriculture, ecosystems, and livelihoods using a nine-step methodology guided by the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) framework. Data were collected through household surveys, FGDs, and KIIs. Historical climate trends and future projections were analyzed using downscaled CMIP6 data under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Findings indicate that by the 2030s and 2050s, the Haor region will experience increased temperatures and precipitation, by the 2030s, maximum winter temperatures are projected to rise by 0.87-0.9°C and under SSP5-8.5, winter rainfall may decrease by about 10%, while monsoon rainfall is expected to increase by 1.7-2% under SSP1-2.6, situation will be further aggravated by 2050; exacerbating risks such as floods, erosion, habitat degradation, and biodiversity loss. Agricultural systems are particularly susceptible to early flash floods, droughts, irrigation shortfalls, and labor shortages, all of which heighten the risk of crop failure and threaten food security. The vulnerability projections and mapping reveal more dynamic and location-specific trends. Under SSP1-2.6, Golapganj upazila’s vulnerability rises from <i>low</i> to <i>moderate</i> by the 2030s, with most other upazilas—except Kulaura—experiencing further deterioration by the 2050s. Under SSP5-8.5, Juri upazila enters a <i>high vulnerability</i> zone by the 2030s, while Kulaura shifts to <i>moderate</i> vulnerability during the same period but reverts to <i>low</i> vulnerability by the 2050s. Vulnerability is disproportionately borne by marginalized groups, including the poor, women, children, the elderly, and persons with disabilities. A logit regression model was used to identify determinants influencing agricultural vulnerability in the Haor region. It was found that household savings, access to credit, use of quality inputs, crop diversification, knowledge of climate-smart agriculture (CSA), land area affected by disasters, and access to irrigation and larger landholdings were significantly affecting agricultural vulnerability in the region. The findings underscore the need for improved extension services, access to climate-resilient inputs, farmer education, and infrastructural investments to enhance resilience in the Haor agricultural systems., The study also assessed sector-specific risks and adaptive responses. It identified existing indigenous coping strategies and proposed ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) approaches to strengthen long-term resilience. The findings offer critical policy insights and governance recommendations to support climate-resilient development and equitable adaptation in one of Bangladesh’s most ecologically sensitive regions.