Empowering the Potential of Nearshoring in Mexico: Addressing Energy Challenges with a Fuzzy-CES Framework

Nearshoring in Mexico is expanding rapidly, yet chronic volatility in the national power grid threatens the reliability and cost-competitiveness of relocated manufacturing lines. To inform strategic mitigation, this study presents a hybrid Fuzzy–CES decision-support framework that embeds the Constant-Elasticity-of-Substitution (CES) production function within a Mamdani Fuzzy-Inference Engine, implemented in both Type-1 and Interval Type-2 variants, to evaluate and optimize production adaptability in energy-constrained environments. Using sector-wide data from Mexico’s automotive industry, key input variables (energy reliability, capital intensity, and labor availability) are objectively quantified and normalized to reflect the realities of regional plant operations. The system linguistically classifies each facility’s production elasticity as low, moderate, or high, and generates actionable recommendations for resource allocation, such as targeted investments in renewable microgrids or workforce strategies. Implemented in MATLAB, simulation results confirm that, while high capital and labor inputs are essential, energy reliability remains the primary bottleneck limiting adaptability; only states with all three strong factors achieve maximum resilience. The Type-2 fuzzy approach demonstrates superior robustness to input uncertainty, enhancing managerial decision-making under volatile grid conditions. In addition, a case study regarding the automotive industry is presented to illustrate how the proposed framework is implemented. The same structure can be used to deploy it in another industry. This research offers a transparent, data-driven tool to inform both firm-level investment and regional policy, directly supporting Mexico’s efforts to sustain competitiveness and resilience in the global shift toward nearshoring.