Uncertainty Quantification in Planning Aircraft Ground Movement Operations With Towbarless Robotic Tractors

ABSTRACT This article addresses the problem of quantifying the uncertainty in planning aircraft ground movement operations using towbarless robotic tractors taking into account the inherent uncertainties of the problem, specifically, the uncertainties in the weight of the aircraft and in the rolling resistance of the wheels of the main landing gear. The tractor‐aircraft system is represented as a tractor‐trailer system with random parameters characterized by means of probability density functions. The quantification of the uncertainties is conducted within an optimal control framework using the formulation of a stochastic optimal control problem, which is solved through a stochastic collocation method based on generalized polynomial chaos. Specifically, the stochastic optimal control problem is converted into a set of deterministic optimal control problems, in which a reduced number of sample values of the random parameters are employed to solve particular instances of the problem. Using these sample values, it is possible to express the obtained optimal solutions as orthogonal polynomial expansions in terms of the uncertain parameters, which allows both statistical and global sensitivity analysis of the stochastic optimal solutions to be carried out in an efficient way. The objectives of this article are to understand the effects of the uncertainties in the model parameters of the tractor‐aircraft system on the solutions of the optimal control problem and to identify which uncertain parameters have more influence on the variability of these solutions. The ultimate goal is to determine the best approach for executing aircraft ground movement operations in the presence of such uncertainties.