Extreme Precipitation Interactions With Large‐Scale Atmospheric Circulations and Greenhouse Gases in Northern Cyprus

ABSTRACT Human populations face significant challenges due to the increasing frequency and intensity of severe precipitation events mainly caused by climate change. In this regard, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of the changes in extreme precipitation and their relationships with large‐scale atmospheric circulations (ACs) and greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Northern Cyprus. The analysis used daily precipitation records from 33 precipitation stations covering the period 1979–2014. To detect and quantify trends in extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), the Mann–Kendall and Modified Mann–Kendall tests were employed, alongside Sen's slope estimator for trend magnitudes. Additionally, the Spearman correlation test and multiple linear regression (MLR) modelling were used to evaluate the relationships between EPIs, ACs and GHGs. The results suggested significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation and a decrease in the dry periods on an annual scale. Seasonal analysis revealed a decline in consecutive dry days during autumn, while the intensity of precipitation extremes showed upward trends in both winter and spring. Furthermore, both correlation and MLR analyses revealed that the ACs, consisting of the Western Mediterranean Oscillation Index (WEMOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Polar/Eurasia pattern (POLEUR), were the most influential circulation patterns affecting EPIs on annual and seasonal scales. Additionally, significant positive correlations were found between GHGs and EPIs, particularly in winter and spring. CH 4 and N 2 O were more influential during the cooler seasons, whereas CO 2 became dominant mainly in spring.