Post-Fire Streamflow Prediction: Remote Sensing Insights from Landsat and an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle

Wildfire-induced disturbances to soil and vegetation can significantly impact streamflows for years, depending upon the degree of burn severity. Accurately predicting the effects of wildfire on streamflow at the watershed scale is essential for effective water budget management. This study presents a novel approach to generating a burn severity map on a small scale by integrating unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based thermal imagery with Landsat-derived Differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and upscaling burned severity to the entire burned area. The approach was applied to the Thompson Ridge Fire perimeter, and the upscaled UAV-Landsat-based burn severity map achieved an overall accuracy of ~73% and a kappa coefficient of ~0.62 when compared with the Burned Area Emergency Response’s (BAER) fire product as a reference map, indicating moderate accuracy. We then tested the transferability of burn severity information to a Beaver River watershed by applying Random Forest models. Predictors included topography, spectral bands, vegetation indices, fuel, land cover, fire information, and soil properties. We calibrated and validated the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) against observed streamflow and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) data within the Beaver River watershed and measured model performance using Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS) metrics. We adjusted soil (maximum infiltration rate) and vegetation (fractional vegetation cover, snow interception efficiency, and leaf area index) parameters for the post-fire model setup and simulated streamflow for the post-fire years without vegetation regrowth. Streamflow simulations using the upscaled and transferred UAV-Landsat burn severity map and the Burned Area Emergency Response’s (BAER) fire product produced similar post-fire hydrologic responses, with annual average flows increasing under both approaches and the UAV-Landsat-based simulation yielding slightly lower values, by less than 6% compared to the BAER-based simulation. Our results demonstrate that the UAV-satellite integration method offers a cost- and time-effective method for generating a burn severity map, and when combined with the transferability method and hydrologic modeling, it provides a practical framework for predicting post-fire streamflow in both burned and unburned watersheds.