Famine, disasters, and climate change: A case study of Jiangsu, China, in the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644 AD)

Understanding the relationship between historical climate change and famine is crucial for current disaster prevention and mitigation efforts. This study investigates how climatic variability and disasters influenced the timing, severity, and spatial patterns of famines in Jiangsu during the Ming dynasty (1368–1644 AD). Using semantic quantitative, spatiotemporal, and statistical analyses, a total of 1034 famine records were compiled, with an average of 3.73 counties affected per year. Famine events occurred most frequently in summer–autumn, particularly in May, June, and July, which together accounted for 71.7% of all occurrences. Based on both the scope and severity of events, a famine index defines four stages: low-frequency, high-frequency, occasional, and outbreak. These stages correspond to periodic cycles of 112, 58, and 19 years. Spatially, famine distribution exhibited significant variation, with southern Jiangsu experiencing more severe famine than the northern regions. At the county level, famine occurrences exhibited high spatial autocorrelation, forming a dual-core structure centered around Xuzhou and Nanjing. The driving mechanisms of famine were primarily associated with droughts, floods, locust plagues, and cold damage, with droughts being particularly impactful. These disasters were closely linked to solar activity and large-scale atmospheric circulations, which together shaped cold-dry periods marked by lower temperatures and reduced precipitation. Such climatic conditions were strongly associated with more frequent famine events, especially during the late Ming dynasty (after 1600 AD).