Ethnic Heterogeneity and Coup Vulnerability in the Early 21st Century: Insights From 54 African States

ABSTRACT Although coups remain a defining feature of Africa's political landscape, the role of ethnic diversity in shaping their likelihood is still debated and has received little attention when considered as a potential pretext for coups, particularly in the early decades of the 21st century. Therefore, this study tests whether ethnic heterogeneity moderates the effects of institutional, demographic, and economic factors on coup risk using aggregated country‐level data for 54 independent African states (2000–2021) and the Bayesian approach. The results support the protective role of strong intrasystemic institutional mechanisms on political system stability, which is specifically pronounced in diverse societies. Related Articles Kim, H.S. 2009. “The Complexities of Internal Conflict in the Third World: Beyond Ethnic and Religious Conflict.” Politics & Policy 37(2): 395–414. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747‐1346.2009.00177.x . Hunter, L.Y., J. Rutland, and Z. King. 2020. “Leaving the Barracks: Military Coups in Developing Democracies.” Politics & Policy 4(6): 1062–1103. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12383 . Hiroi, T.O and S. Omori. 2013. “Causes and Triggers of Coups d'état : An Event History Analysis.” Politics & Policy 41 (1): 39–64. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12001 .