Analysis and forecast of digital technology competition: from the perspective of technology consumers

Purpose In this paper, the dynamic system of digital technology, technology supplier and technology consumer is constructed by using the complex system method, and the competitive result of digital technology is predicted by system evolution analysis. Design/methodology/approach Digital technology is prevalent today, and its development and competition have become an important issue. Digital technology is inherently complex, so this paper will provide a forecast from the market perspective of digital technology to help provide management advice to technology providers and governments. Findings The authors estimated the probability of winning the competition for digital technologies and found the difference in effectiveness between the two forms of government funding. Research limitations/implications The authors only use two digital technology competitions as an example and have not yet generalized to three or more cases. Originality/value Analyze and forecast from the Conduct the analysis and prediction from a market perspective rather than a technical perspective. Analyze digital technology using a dynamical configuration model. The competition problem is transformed into a Markov process.