Gentrification and Fear of Displacement: a Quantitative Study of Older Black and White US Adults

Numerous studies have sought to clarify the relationship between gentrification, displacement, and health. However, few quantitative studies have investigated how gentrification may shape the fear of displacement among residents who remain in gentrifying neighborhoods - a hypothesized mechanism linking gentrification to downstream health inequities. Our study used data from a large national cohort of older Black and white US adults to examine the relationship between neighborhood gentrification and individual-level fear of displacement. In 2023 and 2024, participants in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke study were asked about fear of displacement related to neighborhood change over the past 3-5 years (N = 4,092). Census tract-level gentrification was based on socioeconomic and housing cost changes from the American Community Survey (ACS) 2008-2012 to ACS 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) using Poisson regression and examined effect measure modification by race, educational attainment, and length of residence. Participants' most recent residence was classified as not gentrified (N = 1,927), moderately gentrified (N = 477), intensely gentrified (N = 561), or ineligible to gentrify (N = 1,127). Intense gentrification was associated with more displacement fear (aPR = 1.39; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.83) relative to no gentrification. Any gentrification (combining both moderate and intense gentrification exposure groups) was associated with more displacement fear among Black participants (aPR = 1.69; 95% CI: 1.27, 2.25), but not white participants (aPR = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.52, 1.19). Our findings suggest that gentrification may heighten displacement fears of older US adults, especially among Black residents. Future research should investigate approaches to mitigate displacement fears and racial inequities related to gentrification.