Economic diversification in the GCC: does gold price influence the nexus between oil, green energy, innovation, tourism, and economic growth?

Abstract Economic diversification remains a pressing concern for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies that remain heavily dependent on petroleum revenues, which make them vulnerable to commodity price shocks. While gold has been regarded as a safe-haven asset, its possible intervening role in affecting how oil dependence, green energy, innovation, tourism, and economic growth (ECGR) relate to each other has not been thoroughly explored in the literature. This paper bridges the gap by assessing whether gold prices influence the relationship between these drivers of diversification in the GCC. Data for the study were extracted from the OECD and the World Bank from 2000 to 2022, and the ARDL simulation was used for panel data models with heterogeneous cross-sectional dependence. The findings revealed that oil prices (OILPs) have a substantial positive influence on ECGR in the short and long run. Similarly, green energy technologies (GETs) have a substantial negative influence on ECGR in the short run but a positive influence in the long run. However, green innovation (GRIN) has a substantial negative influence on ECGR in the long run. Moreover, an increase in tourism (TOUR) revenues might lead to proportionate growth in the GDP per capita of the GCC countries. It is also revealed that gold prices (GOLP) have a positive influence on OILP and ECGR. Finally, the GOLP partially mediates the nexus between OILP and ECGR. Thus, this study can serve as a reference for diversification strategies of the GCC countries. These results highlight the strategic significance of commodity price volatility to diversification strategy. Thus, GCC policymakers should incorporate gold price volatility into their mainstream macroeconomic diversification strategy, deepen investment in green and innovation economies, and enhance the resilience of tourism to commodity price shocks.