A framework for climate-adaptive geotechnical analysis and design

Abstract Climate change impacts are affecting and will more and more alter the already precarious hydrogeological equilibrium, with immeasurable consequences on geo-structures, such as embankments and slopes. Despite the impacts of climate change on geo-structures are clear, what is less straightforward is how to deal with them. Among the possible strategies, adaptation of geo-structures to climate change is essential. The aim of this paper is to provide a modular conceptual and operational framework to support best-practice quantitative geotechnical analysis and design of climate-adaptive geo-structures. To this aim, the paper preliminarily introduces the correlations and causal relationships between climate change signals, climate change effects, and climate change impacts. Such correlations are integrated in the framework which explicitly accounts for climate change into the geotechnical analysis and design process. It can be used by geotechnical engineers to evaluate and assess the climate-adaptivity of both existing and newly planned geo-structures, through a structured insight into their interaction with temporally variable climate change signals. An example application of the framework is provided in relation to a real slope stability problem. This case study is used for validation, then the slope’s climate adaptivity is assessed considering different climate scenarios. Results show that by accounting for a remediation measure, the performance of the slope is compliant with design requirements at all temporal scenarios considered, i.e. the geo-structure will be climate-adaptive throughout its service life. This study is part of the research work carried out within the European Large Geotechnical Institutes Platform Working Group on Climate Change Adaptation.