Lock-in, resilience and path development in old industrial regions: an agency-based explanation

Abstract This paper examines why some old industrial regions (OIRs) show strong lock-ins while others experience weaker ones. To do so, it compares the resilience of two OIRs in northern Spain — Asturias and the Basque Country — to major shocks and structural changes over the last fifty years, tracing their divergent development paths and advancing a tentative explanation for these differences. It employs a mixed-methods approach, combining dynamic shift-share analysis to evaluate regional resilience and the role of economic structure with qualitative analysis of how agency shapes regional trajectories, in addition to taking a historical perspective. The extreme cases of Asturias and the Basque Country offer contrasting examples of lock-in and path breaking (and renewal) in regional development. Asturias illustrates the strength of reproductive agency (place maintenance), while the Basque Country exhibits greater change agency (place leadership), engaging a broader range of actors in regional transformation. Ultimately, the paper advocates a holistic approach to regional development that combines both quantitative and qualitative analysis.