Breaking free from the regional carbon trap: analysing the persistence of CO2 emissions in EU regions

Abstract This study examines the persistence of CO2 emissions across European regions through the analytical lenses of path dependence and socio-technical lock-ins. It introduces the concept of the “regional carbon trap” to account for enduring emission patterns. Drawing on data for EU NUTS-2 regions from 1990 to 2022, the analysis identifies key factors that either constrain or enable progress towards a low-carbon transition. The study proposes a novel typology distinguishing four regional trajectories: Virtuous Loop, Carbon-Intensive Trap, High-Emission Trap and Evolution Trap. The results underscore the pivotal influence of industrial specialisation, governance quality and economic diversification in shaping emission trajectories. Based on these findings, the paper formulates policy recommendations focused on targeted exnovation, economic diversification and technological leapfrogging. These recommendations stress the importance of adopting place-sensitive strategies to meet the European Union’s decarbonisation objectives.