Keep All the Flawed Options on the Table: Europe’s Nuclear Future

Abstract U.S. extended nuclear deterrence has long underpinned European security, but renewed doubts under President Donald Trump’s leadership have shaken European confidence. In response, Europeans are debating alternatives, such as a “Eurodeterrent”, and in Poland’s case, even hinting at nuclear ambitions. However, these options all face major strategic, political, and technical challenges. This article argues that Europe’s best course is a hedging strategy–maintaining the U.S. umbrella while strengthening European deterrence, including through greater British-French nuclear cooperation, a conventional buildup, and even nuclear latency in select states. Though imperfect, hedging offers a pragmatic path amid growing uncertainty.