‘Simulating fan discourse shifts: A thematic coding and regression model of K-pop communities under China’s Korean Wave Ban (2016–2017)’

This paper examines Chinese K-pop fan communities’ responses to the 2016–2017 Korean Wave Ban, which restricted the circulation of Korean cultural materials amid diplomatic tensions. The study asks whether fan discourse – previously shaped by South Korea’s more democratic and individualistic environment – would shift toward state ideology or preserve alternative orientations once outside influences were curtailed. Drawing on a dataset of Weibo posts before and after the ban, thematic coding and regression analysis track how online dialogue evolved. Findings show a sharp rise in debates about policy and governance, but no corresponding increase in nationalist or security-driven rhetoric; rather than embracing state narratives or engaging in overt resistance, fans adapted by reframing entertainment discussions into institutional or bureaucratic terms. This strategy of maneuvering reflects coping within constraints while maintaining group identity. The study thus conceptualizes fan communities as emotional and discursive enclaves, whose expressive strategies flexibly adjust to regulation. It highlights how cultural governance reshapes digital participation without reducing fandom to a passive vehicle of state ideology.