Future outlook for rapeseed and mustard: comprehensive forecasting of area and production

Abstract This paper provides a comprehensive analysis and ten-year forecast of rapeseed and mustard cultivation and production in Pakistan using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series modeling technique. Historical data from 1970–71 to 2022–23 reveal a fluctuating but overall upward trend in both cultivated area and production. The ARIMA (3,1,1) model with a constant and linear trend proved to be the most reliable, as validated by diagnostic tests including the Ljung-Box test, inverse roots of AR/MA polynomials, and the heteroscedasticity (ARCH) test on residuals, along with its superior performance on statistical indicators such as parameter significance, adjusted R 2 , sigma 2 , AIC, SBIC, and the Hannan-Quinn criterion. Forecasts suggest a substantial rise in cultivated area from 438 thousand hectares in 2024 to 876.1 thousand hectares by 2033, while production is projected to nearly double from 592.6 thousand tonnes to about 1,196.5 thousand tonnes. Despite this encouraging outlook, yield variability remains a persistent challenge due to poor seed quality, inefficient input use, climate variability, and limited mechanization. The National Oilseed Enhancement Program (2019–2024) revitalized oilseed cultivation by improving seed systems, supporting farmers, and promoting import-substitution policies. However, frequent regime changes disrupted policy continuity, hindering progress toward a stable, long-term oilseed strategy. To sustain growth and achieve self-sufficiency in edible oil production, consistent policy commitment is essential. National interest projects must not be discontinued with political transitions. A stable oilseed policy with medium-to long-term targets for seed distribution, mechanization, and value chain development is required. Price stability during harvest seasons, stronger coordination between institutions, and farmer training and extension services are equally critical. By integrating data-driven forecasts with these policy directions, Pakistan can strengthen its oilseed sector, reduce reliance on imports, and advance toward food and economic security.