Tracking the Past and Projecting the Future Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics in Semi-Arid Region of Giba Basin, Northern Ethiopia

Analysis of historical and future land use/land cover (LULC) dynamics using spatiotemporal data is crucial for better management of natural resources and environmental monitoring. This study investigated LULC transformations over a span of 60 years (1984–2044) for the Giba basin in northern Ethiopia. ArcGIS and the Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Network (CA-ANN) model were used to develop the historical (1984, 2004, 2014, and 2024) and projected future (2034 and 2044) LULC maps of the basin, respectively. The results show that LULC categories experienced shifts from one class to another by 35%, 33%, and 40% in 2004–2014, 2014–2024, and 2004–2024, respectively. During 1984–2024, the largest and smallest percentage of positive changes were observed in settlement (7700%) and shrubs and bushes (25%), which increased from negligible to 78 km2 and from 1668 km2 to 2082 km2, respectively. Furthermore, barren land and forestland showed the largest (−80%) and smallest (−37%) declines, which decreased from 956 km2 to 187 km2 and from 164 km2 to 103 km2 during the same period, respectively. Overall, the last 40 years witnessed considerable changes to LULC dynamics in the Giba basin. Cropland, water bodies, and settlements showed a continuously increasing trend throughout the historical study period, while grassland exhibited a continuous decreasing trend. Results of the CA-ANN model showed that the majority of the LULC categories (including water body, forest, bushes and shrubs, grassland, and barren land) will decrease, except for a slight increase of cropland (+6%) and settlements (+16%), which is projected to increase from 2570 km2 to 2733 km2 and from 78 km2 to 91 km2, respectively, in the next two decades, from 2024 to 2044. In general, high population increase, changes in government policies, and armed conflicts were found to be the most influential driving factors of LULC changes in the basin.