Identifying, modeling, and simulating the evolutionary dynamics of university-related network public opinion: a system dynamics approach

Purpose This study aims to explore the key factors influencing the evolution of network public opinion on universities and to provide governance strategies for relevant institutions. Design/methodology/approach An SMCR-ISM framework is developed to reveal the hierarchical and multidimensional relationships among the influencing factors of network public opinion on universities. A system dynamics model is constructed to analyze interactions within four key subsystems—netizen, event, media, and university—tracking the dynamic evolution of key factors throughout the lifecycle of public opinion. Empirical analysis is conducted based on real-world cases. Findings The ISM model categorizes influencing factors into surface, middle, and root layers, effectively illustrating their hierarchical relationships and interaction paths. Key findings include: (1) root-layer factors play a critical role in the development of network public opinion; (2) governance strategies should be tailored to the four key dimensions—netizen, event, media, and university—across the three stages of development: emergence stage, outbreak stage, and decline stage; (3) governance should target key factors at each stage: establishing an early warning mechanism based on topic sensitivity during the emergence stage; strengthening opinion guidance by addressing netizen and media attention during the outbreak stage; and promoting opinion recovery through information openness during the decline stage. Originality/value This study innovatively combines ISM and system dynamics to reveal the hierarchical structure and lifecycle evolution of key factors influencing network public opinion on universities, offering actionable governance strategies across four dimensions.