Projection of global daily CO ₂ emissions in 2025

Global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have rebounded rapidly and sustained growth since 2021, raising concerns that the remaining global carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C may be exhausted by 2024. This study projects global CO₂ emissions for 2025 by analyzing daily patterns and anomalies throughout the year. We examine daily activity data or proxies from January 1, 2019, to August 31, 2025, to estimate emissions from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes across seven global sectors. Our results indicate that global CO₂ emissions are projected to increase slightly by 0.3% (with a 2-sigma uncertainty range of -1.8% to +2.4%) by the end of 2025, reaching 103.4 Mt CO₂ per day. The declines of the projected growth in 2025 is mainly driven by the emission declines in China, China is projected to experience reductions in daily emissions (-2.4 ± 2.2%) due to shifts toward non-fossil fuel generation in the power sector. For other major emitters, i.e., the United States (+3.0 ± 3.0%), India (+0.3 ± 2.2%), and European Union (+1.5 ± 4.3%) are expected to rise. The discrepancy between daily emissions and baseline projections suggests that a structural transformation of the global energy system but also underscores its vulnerability to extreme weather and surging demand. Additionally, energy strategies in some countries that contradict their emission reduction commitments may further delay the global emissions peak.