What does the future hold? An assessment of commercial livestock farmers' perceptions towards agricultural drought in South Africa

The drought threat among commercial livestock farmers in South Africa has grown significantly, affecting productivity, incomes, and increasing vulnerability due to weather dependence. To inform drought-resilient mechanisms, this study assesses farmers' perceptions of agricultural drought based on experiences, climate variability, and factors influencing perceived drought likelihood and intensity. This study analyses data from 123 farmers using climate variability metrics and multinomial logit regression. Results showed farmers perceived drought as systemic and long-term, driven by less-than-average precipitation, with increasing length and frequency of drought recurrences. Their perceptions aligned with climate trend analysis, which showed modest long-term and short-term rainfall declines and significant temperature increases. Most farmers perceived drought likelihood (60%) and intensity (78%) to be increasing. The perceived increase in drought likelihood was reduced by access to alternative water sources, increased water availability after drought, and sustainable irrigation practices. Recurrences and prolonged exposure to droughts amplified perceptions of increasing drought intensity. Livestock market access constraints, income changes and social network dynamics shaped farmers' drought perspectives. This calls for tailored adaptive responses matching local climatological conditions and strategic policies to enhance water security through accessibility, volume and sustainable use while improving livestock market access.