Evaluation system for the governance capability of national oil companies: A perspective on litigation and business punishment status

Evaluating the corporate governance capacity of National Oil Companies (NOCs) is critical for their response to complex market conditions and achievement of sustainable development. This paper proposes an assessment approach based on legal proceedings and business penalties. In this method, the status of legal proceedings and business penalties serves as an objective representation of governance effectiveness. Key indicators are selected using the Random Forest-Correlation Analysis method, and an integrated evaluation model is constructed by combining the G 1 method to incorporate both subjective and objective weighting. An empirical analysis based on 610 NOC subsidiaries shows that corporate governance scores follow a left-skewed, spindle-shaped distribution. Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that regional governance performance improves significantly with the level of regional economic openness, digital financial development, and local government capacity. Additionally, minority-equity companies outperform controlling-equity companies in governance. A series of robustness tests, including requantification of expert knowledge, redefinition of the dependent variable, and controlling for industrial chain segment bias, confirm the validity and reliability of the proposed evaluation system. This study offers a methodological innovation for assessing the governance capacity of NOCs. • We propose a data-expert integrated model for assessing corporate governance capacity. • This model uses Random Forest and G1 method to integrate expert judgment into the scoring model. • The status of legal proceedings and business penalties can serve as an objective indicator of effective corporate governance. • The empirical analysis and testing results demonstrate the practical application value.