Integrating Geological Domains into Machine Learning for Ore Grade Prediction: A Case Study from a Porphyry Copper Deposit

Accurate grade prediction in porphyry copper deposits requires not only capturing spatial continuity but also accounting for geological controls. This study evaluates the added value of incorporating alteration and mineralization domains into machine learning (ML) models for copper grade estimation at the Iju porphyry Cu deposit, Iran. We compare four scenarios: spatial coordinates only, coordinates + alteration, coordinates + mineralization, and coordinates + both domains. A three-stage workflow was developed, in which Random Forest classifiers—optimized with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-RF)—classify alteration and mineralization zones, which are later integrated into regression models for ore grade prediction. Model performance was assessed using nested spatial cross-validation and benchmarked against Support Vector Machines (SVM). In comparative analysis, the PSO-RF framework consistently outperformed SVM, achieving more balanced accuracy between training and testing data and demonstrating greater robustness to class imbalance in domain classification. Moreover, results show that combining alteration and mineralization domains improves predictive performance (R2 = 0.78; RMSE was reduced by 5.6% relative to coordinates-only). Although numerically moderate, this reduction in error translates into more reliable tonnage and grade estimations near cut-off grades, thereby enhancing the economic confidence of resource evaluations. These findings demonstrate that integrating multiple geological domains can improve both the accuracy and interpretability of ML-based grade models, providing a practical and reproducible workflow for porphyry copper resource evaluation.