Energy Price Fluctuation and Urban Surveyed Unemployment in Transition Context: MF-VAR Evidence

Against the accelerating of global climate change and carbon neutrality transitions, energy price volatility exerts complex effects on the employment dimension of economic sustainability through both industrial and agricultural channels as intermediaries. This study employed a mixed-frequency vector autoregression model to statistically analyze the weekly prices of four major industries and 24 sub-markets in China. The main outcome was the urban unemployment rate in China, and it was verified against the urban unemployment rates in 31 cities and the unemployment rates by age group (YUR/LUR). The study investigated the employment dimension of economic sustainability. Energy and energy metal prices represent the energy transition, while food and industrial goods prices characterize the intermediary linkages. Unemployment rates serve as the employment dimension of economic sustainability. The findings reveal bidirectional interactions and heterogeneous transmission mechanisms between prices and unemployment: energy prices exhibit weaker direct links to unemployment, partly influenced by demand inelasticity and policy adjustments; agricultural products face more persistent impacts, reflecting policy interventions and demand constraints; chemical products demonstrate the highest sensitivity and fastest response to unemployment shocks; metals show significant internal variations, with sub-market-level impacts being more pronounced yet shorter-lived. These insights advance climate and energy economics by guiding low-carbon transition policies, optimizing resource allocation, and managing energy market risks for resilient economic sustainability.