Post-Little Ice Age Shrinkage of the Tsaneri–Nageba Glacier System and Recent Proglacial Lake Evolution in the Georgian Caucasus

Mountain glaciers are sensitive indicators of climate variability, and their retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) has strongly reshaped alpine environments worldwide. In the Greater Caucasus, glacier shrinkage has accelerated over the past century, yet detailed multi-temporal reconstructions remain limited for many glaciers. Here, we reconstruct the post-LIA evolution of Tsaneri–Nageba Glacier, one of largest ice bodies in the Georgian Caucasus, and document the development of its newly formed proglacial lake. Using a combination of geomorphological mapping, historical maps, multi-temporal satellite imagery, Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, and sonar bathymetry, we quantify glacier change from ~1820 to 2025 and provide the first direct measurements of a proglacial lake in the Tsaneri–Nageba system—and indeed in the Georgian Caucasus as a whole. Our results reveal that Tsaneri–Nageba Glacier has shrunk from ~48 km2 at its LIA maximum to ~30.6 km2 in 2025, a loss of −43.5% (or −0.21% yr−1). The pace of shrinkage intensified after 2000, with the steepest losses recorded between 2014 and 2025. Terminus positions shifted up-valley by nearly 3.9 km (Tsaneri) and 4.3 km (Nageba), accompanied by fragmentation of the former compound valley glacier into smaller ice bodies. Long-term meteorological records confirm strong climatic forcing, with pronounced summer warming since the 1990s and declining winter precipitation. A proglacial lake started to form in mid-summer 2015, which by 03/09/15 had a surface area of ~14,366 m2, expanding to ~106,945 m2 by 10/07/2025. The lake is in contact with glacier ice and is thus prone to calving. It is dammed by unconsolidated moraines and bounded by steep, active slopes, making it susceptible to generating a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF). By providing the first quantitative measurements of a proglacial lake in the region, this study establishes a baseline for future monitoring and risk assessment. The findings highlight the urgency of integrating glaciological, geomorphological, and hazard studies to support community safety and water resource planning in the Caucasus.