Ecogeographic Characterization of Potential Tectona grandis L.f. (Teak) Exploitation Areas in Ecuador

Tectona grandis L.f. (teak) is a timber species of exceptional commercial value, widely cultivated in Ecuador for export to international markets. This study aimed to ecogeographically characterise current production and identify zones with high potential for exploitation, using tools from CAPFITOGEN v3.0 and the MaxEnt maximum entropy algorithm, based on data from 1023 plantations. The territory was classified into 26 ecogeographic categories, of which teak is present in 13. Categories 17, 19, and 21 were predominant, collectively accounting for 88.27% of the analysed plantations. Sixteen relevant variables (comprising four climatic, four edaphic, and eight geophysical factors) served as predictors in MaxEnt, with model validation demonstrating strong accuracy (AUC = 0.924). The most influential factors for teak suitability were precipitation seasonality, altitude, annual precipitation and September wind speed. Areas with elevated and high probabilities for teak exploitation were quantified at 6737.83 km2 and 10,154.70 km2, respectively, with Guayas, Los Ríos, and Manabí provinces showing the most favourable conditions. This integrative framework provides an evidence-based basis for land-use planning and resource management, supporting more sustainable and efficient development of Ecuador’s teak forestry sector.