The development of an analysis framework for the integration of low-carbon hydrogen into multi-regional natural gas energy systems

In 2023, global carbon dioxide emissions reached 40 billion tonnes, 60 % more than in 1990, intensifying climate concerns. This study explores hydrogen-natural gas blending as a transitional strategy for decarbonization across several regions and energy sectors – residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural. A multi-regional analysis framework evaluates integration of 20 % by volume low-carbon hydrogen blending into natural gas systems, by identifying hydrogen producers, importers, and exporters based on production and import costs. Applied to Canada, 528 scenarios (2026–2050) assess inter-regional hydrogen trade within Canadian provinces. The lowest-cost scenario involves Alberta exporting hydrogen produced through autothermal reforming with 91 % carbon capture and storage and British Columbia producing its own. The grid electrolysis scenario achieves the highest GHG reductions, with a 4.5 % GHG mitigation in Canada with full energy system representation. These findings provide insights for policymakers and stakeholders in advancing hydrogen infrastructure and decarbonization strategies. • A multi-regional framework for low carbon H 2 trade and energy end-use is developed. • Regions optimized for H 2 production and inter-regional import/export. • Diverse energy systems with 20 % by vol. low-carbon H 2 -natural gas blending. • ATR-CCS gives lowest cost H 2 ; grid electrolysis offers highest GHG mitigation. • For optimal GHG abatement cost, region traits favor ATR-CCS.