Assessing vulnerability to energy poverty through occupant-centric building simulations

Energy poverty is a global issue that exists even in developed countries such as Canada. As of today, it is still a challenge to understand how building characteristics and diversity of occupants needs influence the risk of energy poverty. The objective of this paper is to develop a new framework to assess the risk of energy poverty by combining a probabilistic occupant behaviour model, a building energy model, and an energy poverty evaluation method. Monte Carlo simulations of 3,000 occupant profiles yielded energy rate distributions among households potentially occupying a specific dwelling, which can then be compared to recognized energy poverty thresholds (2M method). This work was repeated for three types of dwellings (average, code-compliant, and high-performance) and different energy rates. The study findings indicate that one-person households remain the most vulnerable to energy poverty within the simulated population. The risk of energy poverty is substantially heightened in buildings with lower energy performance. With a Market Basket Measure income, the fraction of one-person households facing energy poverty is 53.68% in the average-performance building and reduces to 13.73% and 0.12% in code-compliant and high-performance buildings, respectively. Energy poverty risk is also very sensitive to energy price variation and household annual income. It was also found that households with a Market Basket Measure income that were classified as not facing energy poverty shared distinct features compared to those who did (e.g., lower heating set-point temperature). The paper offers a method to help building designers and policy-makers to better consider energy poverty issues. • Monte Carlo simulations are carried out to assess risks of energy poverty. • The design of residential buildings is an important determinant of energy poverty. • Smaller households are more vulnerable to energy poverty. • Energy poverty in lower-performance buildings is more sensitive to energy rates. • Behaviors that prevent energy poverty typically lead to more discomfort.