The conundrum of modernising Polish Armed Forces: Polish decision-makers between co-operation and polarisation (2011–2024)

Since 2011, Poland has alternated between governments led by the liberal-left Civic Platform (PO), the right-wing populist, national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS), and coalition governments, each adopting distinct approaches to military spending shaped by political priorities, strategic imperatives, and technological capacity. Amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, as the principal NATO actor on the Alliance's eastern flank, Poland's military modernisation has become increasingly important in academic scholarship. This article traces the convergences/divergences occurred over the last thirteen years in Poland relative to military spending policies and priorities. Specifically, it investigates whether the PO's pro-European and the PiS's Eurosceptic and pro-Atlanticist posture reflected different strategies in terms of arms procurement policies. Moreover, it assesses Poland's success in transforming the Polish Armed Forces into a modern, credible pillar of NATO's security architecture in Central and Eastern Europe – or whether strategic shortcomings continue to hinder their capacity for deterrence and regional stability.