Macroprudential Policy and Urban Economic Resilience: Evidence from Chinese Cities

Macroprudential policy, as an important instrument for counter-cyclical regulation, plays a crucial role in enhancing urban economic resilience. Based on this, this paper empirically examines the influence of macroprudential policy on urban economic resilience and its optimization paths using data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2011 to 2023. The research findings indicate that macroprudential policy significantly enhances urban economic resilience, and the conclusion still holds after various robustness tests. Further analysis reveals that the main transmission channels include stimulating digital finance development, promoting industrial structure upgrading, and deepening regional integration. Notably, this effect is particularly pronounced in smart cities, big data pilot zones, and cities with less fiscal pressure. Additionally, the test results of spatial spillover effects show that the direct effect of macroprudential policy on the economic resilience of cities is relatively significant, while the indirect effect is relatively weak. Finally, empirical tests have proved that the improvement of urban economic resilience can further drive regional innovation capability. This study provides empirical support and theoretical references for improving China’s “dual-pillar” regulatory framework and enhancing urban economic resilience.