A Case Study on Predicting Road Casualties Among Young Car Drivers in the Republic of Serbia Using Machine Learning

Road traffic accidents are a major global public health concern, ranking among the top three causes of death worldwide and constituting the leading cause of death among individuals aged 15–29. Monitoring traffic safety status and trends is a vital element of effective road safety management. This study investigates road traffic casualties involving young car drivers (aged 18–24) in the Republic of Serbia from 1997 to 2024, analyzing historical patterns and introducing a predictive model for casualty outcomes. The analytical framework employs machine learning techniques, specifically Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to estimate the number of casualties (FSI = Fatal + Serious Injuries) based on various contributing factors. Accurate prediction of accident outcomes is essential for designing targeted road safety measures and reducing casualty numbers.