Individualized Treatment Rules Based on Cost-Effectiveness Criteria in Microsimulations

Based on methodological considerations and the empirical findings in our case study, we expect the superiority of classification trees for the derivation of ITRs to be generalizable to other microsimulation models. This finding needs to be confirmed in future applications. Stochastic uncertainty has significant impacts on the ITRs, such that accurate representations of individual patient pathways are particularly crucial when designing ITRs. Future research could explore further empirical models and analytical approaches for ITRs or consider the translation of ITRs into the real-world decision-making context.