Spillover Effects of Artificial Intelligence Technology, Sustainable Innovation, and Industrial Transition Between Eastern and Western Regions

For a considerable period, China’s eastern and western regions have grappled with imbalances in industrial development, with industrial leapfrogging emerging as a pivotal solution. This study examines the impact of artificial intelligence technology spillovers and sustainable innovation on industrial leapfrogging between eastern and western regions. Empirical analysis is conducted using panel data from 22 provinces and municipalities across eastern and western China spanning 2014–2024, employing both a spatial difference-in-differences model and a dual machine learning model. Findings reveal that both AI technology spillovers and sustainable innovation significantly enhance the efficiency of industrial leapfrogging across regions. Their synergistic effects are pronounced, generating positive spatial spillovers. Institutional environments exert a significant influence on leapfrog industrial development. By regulating AI technology environments and sustainable innovation environments, institutional frameworks enhance leapfrogging efficiency, though this mediation exhibits a dual-threshold effect: most western provinces have yet to cross the first threshold. Industrial and economic heterogeneity weaken the efficiency of AI technology spillovers and sustainable innovation in facilitating industrial leapfrogging between eastern and western regions. This research provides robust empirical support for addressing industrial development imbalances and enhancing industrial resilience between eastern and western regions.