Too many eggs in one basket: On the vulnerability of the Ecuadorian power system and the need for a more sustainable and resilient strategy

A recent historic drought in the Amazon triggered a severe energy crisis in Ecuador, with power outages lasting several hours a day. Despite the popular saying “don't put all your eggs in one basket”, the country's heavy dependence on hydropower has exposedthe vulnerability of its power system to extreme weather conditions. Diversification has been part of the government's capacity expansion strategy for the past decade. Yet, the second largest share of the mix comprises thermal power based on fossil fuels, while the share of non-hydro renewables remains negligible. This study explores a more resilient and sustainable strategy by evaluating the potential to increase the share of photovoltaic (PV) and wind power. We use high-resolution solar and wind resource data to assess the benefits of the joint operation of geographically-dispersed PV and wind power systems in terms of reliability and stability. Results show that the combined system can smooth the power output variability and provide a certain level of firm capacity for given hours in a year. Findings suggest that about half of the annual production at 70 % probability could be deployed as reliable baseload. Additionally, wind power is found to provide diurnal stability to PV during windy months, achieving an 86 % mean capacity factor at the windiest location during evening peak hours. The identified spatio-temporal synergies between renewable resources may provide the economic incentives needed for PV and wind deployment. A more balanced and decentralized power system will help build a more resilient power system to cope with climate-related and other uncertainties. • Ecuador's reliance on hydropower threatens security of supply amid severe drought. • A more resilient strategy to cope with climate-related uncertainties is analyzed. • The joint operation of dispersed PV and wind power provides certain firm capacity. • Intraday complementarity between PV and wind power during windy months is identified. • The analysis provides data-driven insights for informed energy policy decisions.