Strategy for coordinating near-term PM <sub>2.5</sub> , ozone, and CO <sub>2</sub> mitigation in China

China faces the challenge of simultaneously improving fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) air quality while tackling climate change. However, most studies have focused on either the cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> or the synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and PM<sub>2.5</sub> improvement, leaving comprehensive strategies for tackling all three underexplored. Here, we evaluate various combinations of clean-air and climate policies in China using an integrated framework that consists of a technology-based emission projection model, a goal-oriented measure selection and optimization method, a chemical transport model, and a detailed cost-benefit assessment approach. Our results show that while maintaining current clean-air policies is effective in controlling PM<sub>2.5</sub>, their impact on O<sub>3</sub> remains limited. Maximizing cost-effective end-of-pipe measures targeting NO<sub>x</sub> and volatile organic compounds can achieve cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub>, but remain vulnerable to unfavorable meteorological conditions. Near-term climate policies alone contribute limited improvements in air quality, particularly for O<sub>3</sub>, due to the lower synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> precursor emission sources. Only a combined strategy, integrating stringent clean-air actions and ambitious climate mitigation, can achieve the "triple control" of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>, and CO<sub>2</sub>. Under this strategy, national annual mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> and national O<sub>3</sub>-8 h 90th percentile concentrations are reduced to 19.1 μg m<sup>-3</sup> and 126.9 μg m<sup>-3</sup> by 2030, respectively, yielding net benefits of over 3,000 billion RMB. Our findings can inform China's next phase of environmental policies and emission control strategies in developing regions.

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Publication Details

Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Published
2025-11-10
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2513194122
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
2.60

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article

Strategy for coordinating near-term PM 2.5 , ozone, and CO 2 mitigation in China

Jing Cheng, Qiang Zhang, Dan Tong, Guannan Geng et al.
2 citations
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
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article

Strategy for coordinating near-term PM 2.5 , ozone, and CO 2 mitigation in China

Jing Cheng, Qiang Zhang, Dan Tong, Guannan Geng, Yang Liu, Yuxi Liu, Kebin He, Yixuan Zheng
article en
2 citations

Abstract

China faces the challenge of simultaneously improving fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) air quality while tackling climate change. However, most studies have focused on either the cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> or the synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and PM<sub>2.5</sub> improvement, leaving comprehensive strategies for tackling all three underexplored. Here, we evaluate various combinations of clean-air and climate policies in China using an integrated framework that consists of a technology-based emission projection model, a goal-oriented measure selection and optimization method, a chemical transport model, and a detailed cost-benefit assessment approach. Our results show that while maintaining current clean-air policies is effective in controlling PM<sub>2.5</sub>, their impact on O<sub>3</sub> remains limited. Maximizing cost-effective end-of-pipe measures targeting NO<sub>x</sub> and volatile organic compounds can achieve cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub>, but remain vulnerable to unfavorable meteorological conditions. Near-term climate policies alone contribute limited improvements in air quality, particularly for O<sub>3</sub>, due to the lower synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> precursor emission sources. Only a combined strategy, integrating stringent clean-air actions and ambitious climate mitigation, can achieve the "triple control" of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>, and CO<sub>2</sub>. Under this strategy, national annual mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> and national O<sub>3</sub>-8 h 90th percentile concentrations are reduced to 19.1 μg m<sup>-3</sup> and 126.9 μg m<sup>-3</sup> by 2030, respectively, yielding net benefits of over 3,000 billion RMB. Our findings can inform China's next phase of environmental policies and emission control strategies in developing regions.

Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesVol. 122(46)
Ministry of Ecology and Environment (CN), Ministry of Education (ME), Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning (CN), State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (CN), Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CN), Tsinghua University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tsinghua University
Openalex Percentile: Top 9%
Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
2.60
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