Strategy for coordinating near-term PM <sub>2.5</sub> , ozone, and CO <sub>2</sub> mitigation in China
China faces the challenge of simultaneously improving fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) and ozone (O<sub>3</sub>) air quality while tackling climate change. However, most studies have focused on either the cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> or the synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> reduction and PM<sub>2.5</sub> improvement, leaving comprehensive strategies for tackling all three underexplored. Here, we evaluate various combinations of clean-air and climate policies in China using an integrated framework that consists of a technology-based emission projection model, a goal-oriented measure selection and optimization method, a chemical transport model, and a detailed cost-benefit assessment approach. Our results show that while maintaining current clean-air policies is effective in controlling PM<sub>2.5</sub>, their impact on O<sub>3</sub> remains limited. Maximizing cost-effective end-of-pipe measures targeting NO<sub>x</sub> and volatile organic compounds can achieve cocontrol of PM<sub>2.5</sub> and O<sub>3</sub>, but remain vulnerable to unfavorable meteorological conditions. Near-term climate policies alone contribute limited improvements in air quality, particularly for O<sub>3</sub>, due to the lower synergy between CO<sub>2</sub> and O<sub>3</sub> precursor emission sources. Only a combined strategy, integrating stringent clean-air actions and ambitious climate mitigation, can achieve the "triple control" of PM<sub>2.5</sub>, O<sub>3</sub>, and CO<sub>2</sub>. Under this strategy, national annual mean PM<sub>2.5</sub> and national O<sub>3</sub>-8 h 90th percentile concentrations are reduced to 19.1 μg m<sup>-3</sup> and 126.9 μg m<sup>-3</sup> by 2030, respectively, yielding net benefits of over 3,000 billion RMB. Our findings can inform China's next phase of environmental policies and emission control strategies in developing regions.
Authors
- Jing Cheng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0021-4335)
- Qiang Zhang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0609-0337)
- Dan Tong (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3787-0707)
- Guannan Geng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1605-8448)
- Yang Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5477-2186)
- Yuxi Liu (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2134-7479)
- Kebin He
- Yixuan Zheng (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6367-6901)
Institutions
- Ministry of Ecology and Environment (CN)
- Ministry of Education (ME)
- Chinese Academy for Environmental Planning (CN)
- State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (CN)
- Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences (CN)
- Tsinghua University (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Published
- 2025-11-10
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2513194122
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.60
Funders
- National Natural Science Foundation of China
- Tsinghua University