Economic, Social, and Environmental Drivers of Human Development in Vietnam: An ARDL Approach

The paper investigates the economic, social, and environmental determinants of Vietnam’s Human Development Index (HDI) for the years 1990–2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing method, short-run and long-run relationships between HDI and GDP per capita growth, life expectancy, CO2 emissions, trade openness, and unemployment are investigated. The results indicate that GDP per capita growth, CO2 emissions, and trade openness positively and significantly influence HDI in both time periods, while unemployment has a negative influence. Life expectancy has a significant positive influence in the short term but is insignificant in the long term. Diagnostic tests validate the robustness of the model, and stability tests indicate parameter constancy. Robustness tests through the use of FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR estimators validate the main findings. The report provides policy-relevant suggestions for sustaining Vietnam’s human development gains, emphasizing how to reconcile economic growth with environmental sustainability and labour market inclusion.