Ocean-induced weakening of George VI Ice Shelf, West Antarctica

Abstract. Channelized basal melting is a critical process influencing ice shelf weakening, as basal channels create zones of thinning and vulnerability that can potentially lead to ice shelf destabilization. In this study, we reveal and examine the rapid development of a channel within the George VI Ice Shelf's extensive channelized network, characterized by a 23 m surface lowering over a nine-year period. We study changes in ice flow, ocean circulation and heat potential as possible drivers behind the channel, under the hypotheses that it is either a fracture, a basal melt channel, or a combination of the two. Our findings show that the onset of this channel coincides with significant changes in ocean forcing, including increased ocean temperatures and salinity, that occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Modelling of basal melting further suggests that channel re-routing has taken place over this nine-year period, with the new channel serving as a basal melt channel in the latest years. We further observe subtle shifts in ice flow indicative of fracturing. Our findings thus indicate that this channel likely contributes to the weakening of an already thin ice shelf through a combination of basal melting and fracturing. These findings offer insight into how similar potentially destabilizing processes could unfold on other Antarctic ice shelves. Monitoring the evolution of this channel and its impact on ice shelf integrity will be critical for understanding the mechanisms of ice shelf retreat, especially on heavily channelized ice shelves.