Determining Shot Effectiveness in Padel: Exploring Differences Between Winning and Losing Teams

Background: Padel is currently played in more than 150 countries, leading to a substantial increase in performance analysis research in recent years. Examining shot effectiveness (winners vs. errors) provides valuable information for players and coaches to better understand match and competition performance. Objectives: This study aimed to (i) analyze winners, forced errors, unforced errors, and forced error generators according to set results and serving situation; (ii) examine differences in shot types and effectiveness between set-winning and set-losing pairs; and (iii) identify differences in shot types that generate forced errors between set-winning and set-losing pairs. Methods: Data were collected from 41 professional matches (men’s and women’s) available on the World Padel Tour Finland Padel Open website. Descriptive (frequency and percentage) and inferential analyses (chi-square (χ2), Cramer’s V coefficient (Vc), subsequent Z-tests, and corrected standardized residuals (CSR)) were performed. Results: Pairs produced more winners and forced error generators when serving, while forced errors were more frequent when returning. Winning pairs achieved more winners (men: CSR = 7.7; women: CSR = 7.4), whereas losing pairs committed more errors (men: forced errors, CSR = 4.3; unforced errors, CSR = 3.8; women: forced errors, CSR = 4.8; unforced errors, CSR = 2.8). Additionally, winning pairs generated a higher proportion of forced errors (men: 56.5%; women: 60.0%) compared with losing pairs (men: 43.5%; women: 40.0%). Conclusions: These findings are crucial for coaches and players, as they provide insights into sex-specific technical and tactical patterns, thereby enhancing the effectiveness of training design and match preparation strategies.