Relationship of Agricultural Variables and Macroeconomic Indicators: The Case of The Philippines for The Period 2011 to 2017

The agricultural sector remains a fundamental component of the Philippine economy, historically contributing significantly to its gross domestic product. However, questions have been raised regarding the sector’s evolving role amid shifting economic priorities. This study ‎explores the statistical relationship between key agricultural variables and selected macroeconomic indicators in the Philippines from 2011 to ‎‎2017. The objective was to examine annual trends in agricultural variables—specifically value of production and gross value added—and ‎compare them with real GDP growth rate, real inflation rate, and real interest rate. The study also aimed to determine whether statistically ‎significant relationships exist between these sets of variables. A descriptive-correlational research design was used, employing secondary ‎data from the Philippine Statistics Authority, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, and the World Bank. Trend analysis was conducted to observe ‎variable movement across time, while Pearson’s correlation coefficient was applied to assess relationships between agricultural and macroeconomic indicators. While both agricultural and macroeconomic indicators exhibited yearly fluctuations, correlation analysis indicated no ‎statistically significant relationships between the variables (p > 0.05). This suggests that during the study period, movements in agricultural ‎performance were largely independent of changes in macroeconomic indicators. The findings confirm that agricultural variables such as ‎production value and gross value added had no significant relationship with real GDP growth, inflation, or interest rates during the 2011–‎‎2017 period. Future research is recommended to incorporate additional variables and extended time frames to further investigate sectoral ‎interdependencies‎.