Investigating the effects of land use, land cover change, and urban heat island effects in Agra city, India, using a remote sensing approach

Urbanization is a critical topic for metropolitan architects and researchers globally, as rapid urbanization has significant sociological, economic, and environmental effects. As cities expand rapidly, global land use patterns change continuously, which is closely associated with urbanization and increases land surface temperature (LST). This study specifically focuses on Agra, India, a UNESCO heritage city with a semi-arid climate, where urbanization patterns differ significantly from larger metropolitan areas, and aims to investigate the interrelationship between land use and land cover (LULC), LST, and the effect of urban heat island (UHI) on the local climate. Geospatial analyses were carried out for the years 2014, 2019, and 2024 using Landsat spectral imagery to examine the changes in LULC, LST, and UHI in the past decade of this rapidly urbanizing city. LULC was performed using a supervised classification technique, Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC), while LST was derived using a mono window algorithm. The findings show that the estimated mean Land Surface Temperature (LST) has drastically increased from 28.2 °C in 2014 to 41.7 °C in 2024, representing a rise of 13.4 °C over the past decade. The land use land cover (LULC) map was classified with a supervised classification method based on the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC) method, with the kappa coefficients of 0.932 (2014), 0.915 (2019), and 0.945 (2024), which reflected acceptable results for classifications and mapping of LULC. Compared with field-level surveys, the study achieved a classified accuracy of around 95.1%, 94.2% and 97.8%, respectively. This indicates a significant upward trend in temperature. Furthermore, the percentage change in the built-up area within this timeframe is 37.80 km2, reflecting considerable land use and land cover changes. UHI hotspots have also seen a significant rise in the past decade. The findings exhibit that densely built areas experience the highest temperatures compared to open areas, vegetation, and water bodies. This research contributes valuable insights into the effects of urbanization and land use changes on the urban thermal environment. The results can be instrumental in policymakers developing effective strategies to mitigate urbanizations environmental impacts, ultimately enhancing residents quality of life.