Hard Then, Harder Now: CoCom’s Lessons and the Challenge of Crafting Effective Export Controls Against China

Abstract: Will the US-led technology control regime against China have a meaningful impact on the emerging great power competition? Supporters praise the effort’s targeted approach and optimistically see the case as a prime example of weaponized interdependence. But we identify three lessons from the Cold War “CoCom” technology control regime that show the problems and costs associated with the current US effort, particularly over the long haul: (1) The size of the export control regime expands over time, weakening enforcement and encouraging defection. (2) CoCom did not prevent the USSR from accessing key technologies. The current regime is similarly porous, and China is a more adept target. (3) CoCom had more favorable conditions for partner cooperation, yet was rife with tensions and jealousies that disrupted US alliances. Partner conflicts are likely to recur as controls expand and enforcement weakens. These findings have important implications for US economic security policy, US alliances, and arguments about weaponized interdependence.