Cascades of Competition: Southern Asia, the Indo-Pacific, and AUKUS

Abstract: Nuclear stability in Southern Asia is being shaped by different layers of competition in the Indo-Pacific. This article highlights two dynamics that are shaping nuclear competition in the region. The first, within Southern Asia, is states finding space to escalate at lower levels of conflict to address nuclear and military asymmetry. Pakistan is seeking to create space to escalate at lower levels of conflict against India, while India is doing the same against Pakistan on one side and China on the other. The second dynamic is a cascade of reactionary vertical proliferation that is occurring in the Indo-Pacific as a result of China and the United States’ strategic competition. While Washington and Beijing are responding to each other’s nuclear arsenals, India is responding to China’s arsenal, and Pakistan is responding to India’s nuclear modernization. The technology transfers and submarine proliferation in the Indo-Pacific precipitated by AUKUS are intensifying this dynamic.