MENA at the Threshold? Proliferation Risks and Great Power Competition

Abstract: This article situates the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in the global nuclear order, emphasizing how the region has both challenged and spurred adaptations in international nuclear governance for decades. It then examines two pressing contemporary issues: the uncertain trajectory of Iran’s nuclear program after Israeli and US military strikes in June 2025, and the anticipated expansion of nuclear energy across MENA, which could also result in more countries with capabilities that would be conducive to pursuing the bomb. Both developments underscore the difficulties of managing nuclear latency in a conflict-prone region, where tensions among local actors inflect nuclear decision-making. While there are opportunities to mitigate these challenges, and principles that policymakers should follow in addressing them, nuclear aspirations are likely to remain a prominent feature of MENA’s security landscape so long as underlying tensions between regional actors remain unresolved.