Belediye Bütçesindeki Sinek Kâğıdı Etkisi: Dış Göç Özelinde Bir Araştırma

The flypaper effect refers to local government expenditures relying on central government transfers rather than own-source revenue: In Turkey, municipalities depend on these transfers because their own revenues are insufficient to meet local need: These transfers vary based on population and development indice: Despite increasing the number of people municipalities serve, migrants from external migration do not alter the level of transfers since they are not registered in the population but increase municipal expenditures, further amplifying the flypaper effect. This study analyzes the flypaper effect in 16 Turkish municipalities with the highest number of Syrian refugees from 2016 to 2022. Local public expenditures are the dependent variable, while independent variables include central government transfers, social transfers, population, local tax revenues, and external migration data. The results show that the flypaper effect does not hold, and there is no statistically significant relationship between external migration and the dependent variable.