The Illusion of Order: Authoritarian Repression and Non-State-Sponsored Homicide in Chile, 1960–2020

Abstract This study assesses the effect of General Augusto Pinochet’s regime on non-state-sponsored (NSS) homicide rates in Chile from 1960 to 2020. Using interrupted time series (ITS) and synthetic control models (SCM), I test whether the 1973 military coup represented a structural break in Chile’s long-term decline in homicide. Drawing on Durkheim’s theory of social regulation, Foucault’s concept of disciplinary power, and perspectives on authoritarian repression, the analysis examines how state control may suppress interpersonal violence amid widespread political terror. The results show a sharp, statistically significant decline in NSS homicide immediately after the coup, confirmed by structural break tests and robust sensitivity analyses. These findings suggest that authoritarian repression produced an artificially low level of civilian homicide, displacing rather than eliminating violence. The study concludes by discussing the theoretical and methodological implications of applying ITS and SCM to historical criminology and regime-change contexts.