Examining copper supply consistency in socioeconomic pathways: A mine-level dynamic approach

• Primary copper production could reach between 26 and 48 Mt by 2050, depending on key modifying factors. • Under SSPs’ basic drivers, copper requirements could exceed supply by over 40 Mt in worst-case scenarios. • Supply gaps could hinder the deployment of technologies critical to socioeconomic and decarbonization goals. • The decarbonization modeling community should align their scenarios with mining industry constraints. • Integrating resource efficiency and circular economy strategies is key to developing consistent scenarios for decision-makers. Primary copper production capacity is crucial given future demand and social, environmental, technical, economic, and political constraints, often overlooked in decarbonization pathway models. To address this, we propose a methodology to examine the consistency of the basic drivers of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for primary copper requirements using the DyMEMDS stock-flow model. Our approach involves projecting primary copper production capacities to 2050 on a mine-by-mine basis, integrating mining industry dynamics based on commercial data. Results indicate significant concerns regarding the consistency of SSPs' basic drivers for copper requirements, revealing potential gaps exceeding 40 Mt in worst-case scenarios. Such discrepancies could impact technology deployments necessary for socioeconomic and decarbonisation assumptions. We recommend that the decarbonization modeling community align scenarios with mining industry constraints. Considering resource efficiency and circular economy strategies is essential for proposing more consistent scenarios to decision-makers, thereby mitigating risks of copper supply shortages hindering climate action.