Transformation of Global Science core–periphery structure towards a multi-polar horizon: The Rise of China and the Global South from 1980–2020

The global post-industrial shift has witnessed vast geo-political and technological transformations — but to what degree are they mirrored in the scientific enterprise? We examine the structure and dynamics of international collaboration networks from 1980 to 2020, which features the disruptive shift from the longstanding Anglophone duopoly to the multi-polar landscape of the 21st century. To this end, we develop a systematic framework for tracking core–periphery dynamics, which facilitates analyzing the structural factors underlying the ascendance of China and other global south nations. To provide a more granular perspective on the shifting geo-political role of the United States (US) within the global science system, we disaggregated cross-border publications by US states alongside other countries. Longitudinal analysis illustrates the global shift from Euro-American dominance to a multipolar system, with China emerging as a leader and facilitating the integration of its most active partners into the rich club of scientific production. This structural transformation has, nevertheless, altered the stability of longstanding systemic hierarchies and is reminiscent of the “Three-Body Problem” in dynamical systems theory, where the addition of massive poles reduces the system’s stability and predictability. Our findings also highlight the roles of overarching national (US) and transnational (European Union) innovation systems, and the expansive influence of large team science projects as two factors promoting global science integration. These insights provide a fresh perspective on the analysis of global science and its implications for national science policy development, offering strategies for global science countries to strengthen their positions in an increasingly integrated global science system. • Analyzed evolution of global science across nations and U.S. states from 1980-2020. • Core-periphery dynamics show emerging multi-polarity featuring China and Global South. • Global integration yields power shifts & instability, analogous to “Three-Body Problem”. • Innovation systems shape the structure and dynamics of global science integration. • Varied global integration pathways show that big science moderates national ascension.