Water competition and drivers for energy-food production in the Yellow River Basin under rigid water resource constraints

The primary challenge in the Yellow River Basin is water scarcity. The competition for water between energy and food production has exacerbated the imbalance of the region's Water-Energy-Food nexus. This study calculates the water footprints of the YRB from 2005 to 2023. A Comprehensive Competition Index (CCI), which incorporates the dimensions of water quality, quantity and structure, is proposed to evaluate the intensity of water competition between food and energy production. The Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) algorithm is employed to identify the key driving factors of the competition, and the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression (GTWR) model is further utilized to analyze the spatio-temporal driving mechanisms. The results indicate that: (1) 2005–2023, the water competition between the energy and food sectors in the YRB exhibited composite characteristics, with the overall competition intensity rose gently, while the individual competition components (quality, quantity and structure) demonstrated significant fluctuations. (2) The key driving factors for the CCI are the water yield coefficient, the proportion of renewable energy consumption, the urbanization rate and energy consumption per capita. (3) The key drivers of water competition exhibit significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity, with factors like urbanization rate and renewable energy consumption ratio exerting opposing impacts across different regions or temporal stages. These findings can provide a scientific basis for the management of water for energy and food production in the YRB. • A novel water competition index assesses quantity, quality and structure. • One methodological framework that incorporates LASSO and GTWR models reveal spatio-temporal drivers of water competition. • Water usage structure is the dominant driver of rising energy-food water competition in the YRB. • Among the key drivers of water competition, UR and RECR exhibit significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity.